Protect Group has published a framework for online travel businesses to plan for winter disruption before it happens, rather than reacting once travellers are affected.

The hidden cost of reacting

Storms ground flights, snow closes roads and illness peaks around the holidays, yet much of the work of handling disruption happens after booking. Protect Group identifies three costs: direct revenue loss through goodwill refunds, vouchers or chargebacks decided case by case; operational strain as requests arrive in waves while teams are stretched; and bookings that are delayed or lost as uncertain travellers wait or choose a more flexible seller.

Anxiety as a booking signal

For customers, disruption starts as a question at checkout: what if I can't go? Citing its Global Booking Anxiety Study 2026 with Phocuswright and WiT, Protect Group says this uncertainty strongly shapes decisions, and that answering it at the point of booking reduces the reason to wait.

A five-step framework

• Map a winter risk calendar using the last two or three winters' cancellation and refund data by route, destination and date.
• Match the safety net to the worry: Refund Protect for emergencies such as illness, injury, severe weather or transport failure; Cancel For Any Reason, refunding 50% to 80% of booking value up to 24 hours before; and Protect Plus flight delay and delayed baggage compensation. Protect Group cites SITA figures putting the cost of mishandled bags at $6.3 billion in 2025.
• Offer it at the right moment, testing season-specific messages with its Content Intelligence Platform and tailoring price with Smart Pricing.
• Bring winter bookings forward by featuring refundability in early-booking campaigns, abandoned-basket emails and search results.
• Take refunds off the desk: travellers apply on the Refund Platform, where an AI review function approves clear-cut cases and a customer experience team assesses the rest.

Bottom-line effect

Protect Group says the approach shifts non-travel risk to a specialist partner, keeps non-refundable rates intact, turns upgrades into revenue and brings bookings in earlier and more evenly, improving cash flow forecasting for hotels and travel sellers alike.

Originally published by Protect Group: Protect Group Sets Out a Predictive Plan for Winter Travel Disruption