Access Hospitality has published a practical guide to hotel revenue forecasting for US operators, arguing that forecasting feeds almost every decision, from pricing to scheduling.
Three inputs
The guide defines a forecast as an estimate built from historical performance (occupancy, ADR and RevPAR by date from the PMS), what is already committed (on-the-books position and pace) and outside factors, from the convention calendar to a competitor dropping rate.
Lessons from 2025
Citing HotelData.com, the article says US hotels revised revenue expectations down 7% to 10% by mid-2025, with rooms revenue running 12% below budget through the third quarter. The year closed with ADR 3.8% and RevPAR 5% under budget, with the widest gaps in July and August. Hotels that finished closer to plan were those that noticed and recalibrated sooner.
Demand versus revenue forecasting
Demand forecasting estimates how many guests want to stay on a date and drives inventory and restriction decisions. Revenue forecasting turns that into dollars across rooms and other spend. A hotel can hit its occupancy forecast and still miss revenue.
Rolling forecasts
Annual budgets remain useful for owner reporting, but rolling forecasts updated weekly or monthly allow faster response. Conservative, base and optimistic scenarios give teams a range for labour and purchasing.
Metrics to forecast
- Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR. US RevPAR closed 2025 at $100.02, down 0.3%, on 62.3% occupancy and $160.54 ADR.
- TrevPAR, including F&B, spa, parking and fees, which fell 8.8% in 2025 to $151.34.
- Booking pace and segmentation, where forecasts most often go wrong.
The guide also reminds hotels that the FTC fee rule, effective 12 May 2025, requires mandatory resort and amenity fees in upfront prices.
Step by step
It recommends pulling two to three years of PMS history and pickup reports, annotating distortions such as hurricanes or one-off conventions, and consolidating channel data rather than combining it by hand.
Originally published by Access Hospitality: Access Hospitality Publishes Practical Hotel Revenue Forecasting Guide
.png)
